Get Cultured — February 4, 2015 at 1:05 pm

Academy Award Race Shaping Up: DGA Predictions

Here it comes, February. Black History Month is in February. The Super Bowl starts the month. Valentine’s Day is right smack in the middle of it and President’s day is not far after. But what really matters to film buffs? Why is this month so big for those cinematic lovers that follow movies like sports? It’s because at the end of it, we get our night. A night full of snubs, surprises and disagreements. Where backstage politics and campaigns rule the night and the winners have played a great game of chess called the Oscars. That’s right, on February 22nd, the 87th Academy Awards Ceremony will be televised, and for those of us that can’t be there, we will be finding our favorite New York spot to watch it. A magical night only described as the movie geeks’ Super Bowl.

I’ve been following the Oscars vigilantly since I was 12, the ceremony was in March, and “Braveheart” beat the far superior “Apollo 13.” The following year, the snorefest known as “The English Patient” won the award of Best Picture over the Coen brothers’ masterpiece “Fargo.” Yes, this is what peaked my interest at first. The way some movies won over better movies. For a 12-13 year old who was interested in becoming a politician one day, this award season married both of my interests perfectly. The next year I read every article, followed every newscast, and watched every interview before “Shakespeare In Love” got to walk with Best Picture while Steven Spielberg won Best Director for his work on “Saving Private Ryan.” Both movies were favorites to win, this way they could appease their producers. This was also during the times of Harvey Weinstein’s mean streak.

My love for the Oscars only grew, and so did my understanding. Now, here we are 20 years after Braveheart was released, and I’ve seen some great movies get love which seemed impossible then (The Hurt Locker, Lord of The Rings) and some getting awards they had no business winning (Crash, The King’s Speech). Obviously disillusionment happens, so does elation, and as we approach the day things heat up and get more exciting. The guilds have already started giving out awards, which combined with the Critics Circle’s recognitions shape the Award season. The Producer’s Guild gave their award to “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance),” so did the SAG. That is a pretty good indication of where Birdman stands with the Academy members, but the run is far from over. “Boyhood” was a clear favorite at the beginning of this season, especially with the critics, and while the momentum has slowed down, this could change. And now with “The Imitation Game,” “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” and “Whiplash” all gaining buzz, it seems like things are just heating up!

Now, this weekend is the Directors Guild Awards (DGAs). The DGAs are a big indicator as to who will win the Best Director award, and subsequently the favorite to win Best Picture. In recent history, this award showed its power as Ben Affleck won but did not get nominated for the Oscar. Yet, the movie still went on to win Best Picture. That hasn’t happened since “Driving Miss Daisy,” a 1989 movie that was announced as the Best Picture of the year in the 1990 ceremony, despite lacking the directing nomination. Only in two other occasions has that happened before 1990, and that was in early ceremonies (‘Wings” 1927, “Grand Hotel” 1932). Even with those statistics working against it, “Argo” still won. Another example of the importance of the DGAs and how they help predict the race: only 7 times has a DGA winner lost the Oscar since the DGA award ceremony started in 1948. In 86 years the Best Picture winner has also received Best Director 62 times. That means out of 86 ceremonies, Best Picture has won only 24 times without the director also being rewarded. Out of those 24 times, 6 of them have occurred in the past 25 years. Get the gist?

So this Saturday, the race should be getting a little easier to predict; or not, who knows. Out of 5 nominees, only 4 are also nominated for Oscars: Wes Anderson, Alejandro González Iñárritu, Morten Tyldum, and Richard Linklater. The missing link is Clint Eastwood for American Sniper, and while the movie has been successful at tugging Americans’ patriotic strings (and getting nominated despite the obvious fake babies, which is an amateur move no matter the reason) it has no chance of winning best picture. The other four all did terrific works, with Linklater revolutionizing storytelling, while Iñárritu helped expand the language of cinema. Anderson did his best work, which is saying a lot considering his portfolio, and Tyldum carved his name into the directors to watch. If Iñárritu wins, chances are “Birdman” is going the whole way. If Linklater wins, it puts “Boyhood” back in front. If either of the other two win, this race will explode wide open. SO who do I think will win?